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Hindsight is a wonderful thing

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Old Camera

I read the other day that UCAS applications for university were down for a second year running. This maybe something that universities should not only care about, they should be worrying about this and thinking about their planning for the next few years, even the next ten years.

I also read that Intel, the computer chip manufacturer were laying off 15% of their staff having failed to respond in an effective way to the use of ARM chips, first by Apple and then by many other PC manufacturers.

Throw in a podcast I listened to in the car the other day when stuck in traffic on the M5, which covered companies that failed to change. This included Kodak who did not adapt to the introduction of digital cameras, magazine publishers who didn’t understand the web, and even record stores that couldn’t adapt to the introduction of CDs or downloads.

Before I discuss the impact of the drops in applications for universities, it will provide some insights into looking at what is happening to Intel and looking back at other major companies that failed to respond to (usually digital) disruption. It should be said that hindsight is a wonderful thing.

When I started working at City of Bristol College in the early 1990s (it was Brunel College then), I worked in the Faculty of Business, Food, and Hairdressing. A large diverse faculty, and across the many staff we shared a single 286 personal computer. The 286 was the name of the chip that powered the computer. Intel at the time was the biggest chip manufacturer in the world. I read in the book, Good Strategy, Bad Strategy, that it had successfully transitioned from a manufacturer of computer memory to one that made computer core chips.

In the 1990s I remember upgrading computers to a 386 and then a 486. I remember the marketing hype that arrived in 1993 when Intel named the 586, the Pentium, in order to differentiate it from other chip manufacturers.

In 2002 I moved over to the Apple platform, buying a G4 PowerBook and later a G5 Power Mac. I was, like many Mac users, a little concerned when Apple announced the move to Intel back in 2005. However all wasn’t’ well for Intel, when they failed to deliver on the needs of Apple. Apple moved to fabricating their own chips, first for their iOS devices and then their Mac lineup. Apple announced in 2020 that they would be moving all their Mac models away from Intel chips to ARM processors. The M1, M2 and now the M3 chips power all their current models.

The problem for Intel, and probably is why they are now having problems, was that they didn’t just lose a customer when Apple moved to ARM, other computer manufacturers in an attempt to maintain market share and compete with Apple also started building ARM powered computers. Intel had not only lost Apple, they were also now losing considerable market share.

This month we saw Intel decided they needed to cut costs and have cut 15% of their staff. Will this be enough, maybe, but probably not.

The podcast I listened to discussed how Kodak did not adapt well to the digital revolution in photography.

It was interesting as it wasn’t as though Kodak ignored digital, they actually produced a handheld digital camera back in 1975.

However, company executives were reluctant to make a strong pivot towards digital technology, since it would require heavy investment, make the core business of film unprofitable, and put the company into direct competition with established firms in the computer hardware industry.

One of their own employees had written in 1979 that photography would completely shift to digital by 2010.

Kodak knew that digital was going to disrupt the market for photography. However they were unwilling to pivot and shift from their core business. They couldn’t see what they needed to change, as they were concerned with protecting their existing business.

Their customers and consumers made the move to digital and there were plenty of other companies out there who were being innovative and designing, developing and making the (digital) photography products that were being demanded.

It also probably didn’t help that Fujifilm started competing directly with Kodak in the US (and worldwide) in the 1980s.

You could say that Kodak didn’t adapt to the changes happening to their sector.  Kodak weren’t blind to the threats posed to their business, they knew what digital meant for photography, they designed and built digital photography products. However they failed to change enough to make a difference.

In 2012 Kodak filed for bankruptcy.

There are lots of other examples of how organisations and companies did not respond to changes and trends. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, as you can ask, why didn’t they change, they could see the challenge, they could have changed, they could have adapted.

The problem often is that though internally the organisation may know it needs to change, the current situation means they are unable to change.

That radical step is make radical change knowing that this will have a potentially negative impact on the business and your customers.

So is the drop in applications a bump or a trend? That we don’t know, but maybe we will this time next year.

So universities may know and realise that they need to change, but they can’t afford to make those changes now. As a result they may never change.

weeknotes

Down Solent Way – Weeknote #284 – 9th August 2024

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August is a quiet time in higher education. University campuses, usually bustling with staff and students, become a calm oasis of peace. As with many organisations associated with education, Jisc is less busy and quieter.

I have been working on a report, which has required, interviews with key stakeholders across higher education, and so it has been somewhat of a relief that people have been around for those conversations.

On Tuesday I headed down the Solent way to Southampton by train for a lunch meeting with some senior colleagues from Solent University. It was a really useful meeting to discuss their challenges and how Jisc could help and support them. I also took the opportunity to test the waters of the report we’re producing on collaboration.

It’s the time of year where I get told to refresh my mandatory training, this time it was Data Protection and Information Security. I generally try and get these done, as soon as I am notified it is needed. In the past (in previous jobs) I would de-prioritise this kind of activity, as I would be busy doing other things. Then it would either be at or pass the deadline. The training would then be rushed, and a manager would be chasing me. Now I just get it done, it gets prioritised, so that it’s less of a worry and an annoyance.

In a similar vein, I did my end of year review paperwork as well. This is relatively easy to do as I record weekly activities, and these feed into both the review paperwork and these weeknotes.

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Mandatory – Weeknote #283 – 2nd August 2024

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I spent the week in London undertaking various activities. Some of which had to change due to transport issues and the high summer temperatures.

We had our team away day in the London office.

Spent some of the week working on a collaborative activities report that will very likely be published in September.

It’s the time of the year where I have to refresh my mandatory training, this time it was on information security and data protection. I approach these with a positive attitude, I realise some people think of this as a tick box exercise, I don’t.

Attended an action learning set, which was an interesting training session. Something I hadn’t really done before.

Had lunch with a few of our relationship managers in the London office. Always nice to meet up, chat and discuss stuff with them.

I did some field research looking at geographical challenges in collaboration. I was intrigued by the setup at the old Olympic Park where quite a few universities, both London based and nationally, have sites. I was wondering what the issues would be for students if they collaborated together on areas of the student experience. One thing I found was that, looking at a map provides some insights, but doesn’t compare to actually physically being in the location and walking the walk. Really helpful in feeding into my work on optimising operations and collaboration.

weeknotes

Reviewing the role of the OfS – Weeknote #282 – 26th July 2024

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After two weeks off on holiday I was back at work. I had worked a few days of my leave over the last two weeks, so took time this week to catch up on that.

The new Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson was on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme to launch Skills England, however she also answered questions on HE funding, reaffirming there’s no more money coming from govt at the moment.  As part of her interview she indicated that that the DfE will make an announcement in parliament about reform of the Office for Students (OfS).

I have in many meetings over the last year or so discussed the possibility that a new Labour government could abolish the OfS. The OfS was a Conservative government creation and with the recent focus on freedom of speech and other issues; could a new government replace the OfS with something new.

In the end, we still have the OfS and the announcement was about the review of the OfS:

The review found that the case for bold regulation of higher education is clear but that the OfS should more sharply focus on key priorities, which include monitoring financial sustainability, ensuring quality, protecting public money and regulating in the interests of students.

Wonkhe noted:

The review does not make substantial recommendations for OfS to be given new powers on financial sustainability but suggests that the desirability of market exit as a natural outcome of the market-based system should be reviewed, and OfS should work with government to build an infrastructure to offer advice and support for institutions experiencing financial sustainability challenges – including updating and strengthening student protection plans.

It was reported that Brunel University London to join University of London federation

Brunel University London will join the University of London federation from 1 October 2024, in a move that will strengthen the federation and open up new opportunities for collaboration between universities in London.   

This is indicative of what we might see in the future across the sector on collaboration and merger as the continuing challenges impact on the sector.

weeknotes

We have a new government – Weeknote #279 – 5th July 2024

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This week saw the defeat of the Conservatives and a new Labour government.

Though the expectation is that there will be no new money for higher education, I think we can expect to see some reforms. Personally I am expecting major reforms for the Office for Students.

Took some leave this week as I had a fair amount of leave to take before the year end at the end of July.

Had various meetings and discussions about a report we have commissioned and the planning and processes we will use.

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Driving value – Weeknote #278 – 28th June 2024

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A somewhat desk based week this week.

This included reflecting and feeding back on the UUK Chapter 7 – expert roundtable last week in London.

I reviewed the Intelligent Campus Maturity Model in regard to RIBA Smart Building Overlay. There was a lot of alignment and synergy.

I attended an internal Guiding Principles review focus group at Jisc. One thing I noted about our guiding principles (or values) was how well known and embedded they were somewhat dependent on who was driving them. Something to reflect on, if you have values, of course everyone owns them, the key is who is responsible for driving them? How many people are working in embedding them into the organisation? Are the aligned in their methodology in embedding?

I attended an online event, Four Futures: Shaping Higher Education in England.

I did some research into the Intelligent Campus aspects in providing support for Digital Elevation Tool business plan. This included writing statements and content for Digital Elevation Tool business plan.

weeknotes

They’ll never take our freedom! – Weeknote #277 – 21st June 2024

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I was in London for most of the week, attending meetings, going to a roundtable, working in the office and undertaking field research.

This Wonkhe article was interesting in that the argument was that universities should prepare for less autonomy in exchange for a more secure future. Will universities be willing to sacrifice their independence for financial security?

I attended an expert roundtable on funding hosted by UUK in London to support a report they will be publishing in September. Quite a limited conversation due to the limited time available and the limited timeframe for the report (next six weeks) and the purpose of the report which is to influence incoming government about external support HE sector needs. It was interesting to reflect that in some areas of the sector, there is still limited imagination on what needs to happen (fix a broken model), though there are other institutions who are already looking at how they can transform their operating model.

Attended a meeting about the Intelligent Campus Maturity Tool. Hopefully soon I will be able to publish some of the ideas we have for this tool. I have been working on the Intelligent Campus Maturity Tool competency statements, in the main covering the campus and technology.

This tweet made me smile

I’m increasingly of the view that the reason for The Great Silence is that civilisations are inevitably crushed by the weight of nobheads shortly after inventing the internet.

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Marking – Weeknote #276 – 14th June 2024

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I spent most of the week working from home, it is exam time for some in the house, so I was around to provide lifts to early revision sessions, or to ensure functionality in case of delayed buses. I did plan to go into the office one day, but even though it was June, the weather forecast was for heavy rain and strong winds. My reasoning for going to the office was that I had a series of later afternoon meetings, so I would then have somewhere quieter to participate in them. In the end, two of those three (and the most participative) were cancelled, or not needed.

I actually like going to work in the office, the change in space, place, and routine, makes a difference to how I feel, or even my wellbeing.

I have been working on a concept Intelligent Campus Maturity Tool. Based on the Further Education elevation tool Jisc produced, the idea is that you can use the tool to assess your progress in building your smart campus. I have already identified the key themes and sub-themes; I am now working on competency statements for those different sub-themes. I am planning to run a workshop in the autumn to test out the tool with the community.

At the beginning of the week I was marking and moderating some bids for a tender we had out on the opportunities for collective, collaborative, and inter-institutional activity.

A couple of meetings were cancelled which gave me some time back.

I am currently taking a leadership course at Jisc, and this week I completed some more work on this.

Had a volunteering day on Friday. Jisc provides staff with three volunteering days a year. I use mine to support the administration of running a Cub Pack. This involves planning the programme, badge administration, risk assessments, and communicating with other organisations.

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